How much will CBAM cost in 2026? The factor ramp, explained
"How much will CBAM cost us?" is the question every finance team eventually asks. The honest answer for 2026 is: less than you might think - for now. Here is the arithmetic.
The formula
A CBAM bill has three moving parts:
CBAM cost ≈ embedded emissions × CBAM factor × certificate price
minus any carbon price you already paid in the country of origin.
Embedded emissions - the tonnes of CO₂e baked into the goods you import, using actual verified data or the Commission's default values.
Certificate price - one certificate covers one tonne of CO₂e. The price tracks the EU ETS auction price; the first published figure, for Q1 2026, was €75.36 per tonne.
CBAM factor - and this is the part that surprises people.
The CBAM factor: why 2026 is cheap
Because EU producers' free ETS allowances are only being withdrawn gradually, you pay CBAM on just a share of your emissions each year. That share - the CBAM factor - ramps up over time:
| Year | CBAM factor |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5% |
| 2027 | 5% |
| 2028 | 10% |
| 2029 | 22.5% |
| 2030 | 48.5% |
| 2034 | 100% |
So in 2026 you effectively pay on 2.5% of your embedded emissions. By 2034, you pay on all of them.
A worked example
Say you import steel with 1,000 tonnes of embedded CO₂e in a year, and the certificate price holds around €75 per tonne:
- 2026: 1,000 × 2.5% × €75 ≈ €1,875
- 2030: 1,000 × 48.5% × €75 ≈ €36,375
- 2034: 1,000 × 100% × €75 ≈ €75,000
Same imports, same price - but a very different bill as the decade goes on. And if ETS prices rise, it climbs higher still.
Plug in your own numbers with our free CBAM cost calculator, which shows your estimate for this year next to the 2030 and 2034 projection.
Two ways to lower the bill
- Use actual values, not defaults. Default values carry a conservative mark-up (around 10% in 2026, rising toward 30% by 2028), so verified installation data from your supplier is usually cheaper. See our default-values reference.
- Claim any carbon price paid abroad. If your supplier's country already charged a carbon price on the goods, you can deduct it - with evidence.
When you actually pay
Not in 2026. For 2026 imports you buy certificates from 1 February 2027 and surrender them by 30 September 2027, alongside your first annual declaration. From 2027 you also hold certificates covering at least 50% of accrued emissions at the end of each quarter. The full timeline is on our CBAM deadlines tracker.
The price method changes to weekly quotes in 2027, and default values are revised periodically. Subscribe to The CBAM Brief for the updates that move the number.
This is plain-English guidance, not legal or tax advice. The official certificate price is published by the European Commission.
Related reading
Beyond the EU: The Global Wave of Carbon Border Adjustments Taking Shape in 2026-2027
The EU CBAM is live. The UK follows in 2027. Australia, Canada, the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Norway are all in motion. Here's a plain-English country-by-country guide to what's enacted, proposed, and under study.
How to File Your First Annual CBAM Declaration: A Step-by-Step Guide for EU Importers
The first annual CBAM declaration is due 30 September 2027, covering all 2026 imports. Here is exactly what you need to file it - who qualifies, what data to gather, and how verification works.
CBAM's 2026 Trade-Exposure Map: Which Supplier Countries Carry the Highest Carbon Cost?
China, India, and Russia dominate EU imports of CBAM goods - but their carbon cost per tonne varies dramatically. Here's how to read the exposure map and what it means for sourcing.